Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 404: The Price of Betrayal

As the casualties continued to rise, Franz also began to feel a headache coming on. Just as Carlo Filangieri had anticipated, Austria also needed to save face.

If they could expose that they were fighting against France, then no matter how high the casualties, it would not matter. The problem was that Austria was currently unprepared for an all-out war with France.

Once the facade was broken, a full-scale war would inevitably break out. There was no such thing as a localized conflict. Neither side would concede, and once the fighting began, it would escalate to a matter of life and death.

The proud French would not surrender; Napoleon III would have to fight to the bitter end. Meanwhile, Austria had a population advantage and the upper hand in war potential, so Franz would be even less likely to admit defeat.

This meant that even if a victor emerged from a regional conflict, since neither side was willing to back down, the war would still continue.

Either they would fight for three to five years until one side could no longer persevere and admit defeat, or they would both be severely weakened, or they would go all-in for a fight that would determine their life or death.

None of this could be ended in the short term. In an era without airplanes, tanks, or automobiles, relying on marching on foot, blitzkrieg was yet to be a thing

It would all come down to comprehensive national strength. Looking at the map, the geographic locations of France and Austria had already determined that whichever side launched an offensive would be at a disadvantage.

Their conquest in Italy would be limited at best to portions of the Kingdom of Sardinia, a non-vital region for French interests inhabited by obstinately rebellious Italians, making any territorial gains there meaningless.

Instead, it would increase the burden of logistics and supply lines. Franz did not believe the Austrian army could cross the Alps and march all the way to Paris.

The more likely outcome was being constrained by logistics and then being driven back by the French, who could transport supplies by sea to wage a war of attrition there.

The German Federal Empire and Switzerland bisected Central Europe, and just thinking about “borrowing” passage was laughable. What difference was there between that and invasion?

Unless France was provoked into taking the offensive, Austria was unlikely to attack proactively. Franz did not want to experience being ostracized, which was definitely not a pleasant experience.

Even if these factors could be tolerated, what Franz could not accept was the cost of war. Even if they defeated France, at most, they would receive a sum of war reparations.

As for acquiring territory, Austria could not reach that far! Moreover, Franz had no interest in French lands.

They dared not even claim the neighboring Kingdom of Sardinia, otherwise, the number of Italians within Austria would explode, hindering ethnic integration and increasing the possibility of unrest.

Colonies? After a Franco-Austrian War, it would be unknown how much of the Austrian navy would even remain. Being able to keep their existing territories would require God’s blessing. Would they still have the capacity for expansion by then?

Even in terms of war reparations, it was uncertain whether they could obtain any. If John Bull intervened, it might all be for naught.

There was no relying on the Austro-Russian alliance either as that was unreliable. Austria can sit back during the Russo-Prussian War, and naturally, the Russians can sit back during a Franco-Austrian War, especially considering they’re already in a deadlock with Prussia.

Under the current circumstances where the facade had not been torn through, these casualty numbers alone were humiliating for the Austrian military. Continuing like this, casualties surpassing those of the Austro-Sardinian War are inevitable.

Currently, tensions are escalating on the Italian Peninsula, with both France and Austria steadily increasing their forces, just waiting for a spark to ignite.

The emotional states of Napoleon III and Franz were quite similar, or better put, their situation induced trepidation. If fighting broke out in Italy, Austria would likely achieve little success, while France would lose its grip on the Balkans.

The French navy was powerful but the Austrian navy was no pushover either. At least in the Adriatic Sea, the French navy could not overwhelm the Austrians. From the outset, French troops in the Balkans would be isolated.

If winning the war was possible, losing the French Balkans could be acceptable. However, constrained by geographical location, the most suitable point of engagement at present is Italy.

Napoleon III dared not touch Central Europe, otherwise, the enemy would not just be Austria, but an anti-French coalition.

Marching all the way from Italy to Vienna, that distance alone would cause the French army to collapse multiple times. While Austria’s railways were well-constructed, everyone used different rail gauges preventing interconnection, so the railways could not be relied upon.

And that was the ideal scenario. Normally, the French would likely only make it as far as Lombardy, which had well-fortified defenses that were not easy to breach.

In the Austro-Sardinian War, the Kingdom of Sardinia relied on internal sabotage to tear through the defenses, now there were no such inside collaborators.

Against this background, even if the French occupied the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, the two sides could at most be at a tie.

To achieve victory would require Franz to personally lead troops and blindly give orders, same as in the original timeline.

The present differed from the past. If Franz and Napoleon III both personally led troops in combat, no one truly knew what the outcome would be, as neither of them was a skilled military strategist.

In the original timeline, during the Austro-French War, Napoleon III did not have a chance to fully demonstrate his capabilities, so the French army emerged victorious. If he had exerted full effort, the outcome would have remained uncertain.

With examples such as the Near East War, the American Civil War, and the Prusso-Russian War, the French government has become much more cautious, without arrogantly assuming itself invincible.

Unlike the days of his rise to power, Napoleon III, with his large family and empire, is no longer the gambler he once was. His throne lacked full legitimacy and the French people would not tolerate failure; any defeat would shake the foundations of his rule.

This intervention in the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies is merely to test Austria. Risking war for such a probe is simply not worthwhile.

Neither side desires war, yet the situation in the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies leaves both countries unable to back down, as both are concerned with maintaining their reputations; whoever backed down first would be admitting defeat.

Although this “defeat” did not entail any substantive losses, their pride must be maintained. It was in this context that Prime Minister Carlo Filangieri took action.

Foreign Minister Urdinov looked at the evidence in his hands and questioned, “Prime Minister, with just these few documents, it is too unconvincing. I’m afraid the French and Austrian envoys will not believe it.”

He was inwardly troubled. If they were to frame someone, they had to be professional about it! Simply presenting a pile of documents as evidence, anyone could have them printed at any random street shop, so it lacked any persuasiveness.

Prime Minister Carlo Filangieri smiled and said, “It doesn’t matter. There’s no need for them to believe it. Looking at this, do you not think of something?”

Urdinov nodded, discerning the implication behind Prime Minister Carlo Filangieri’s words. Few would believe that Americans had incited the conflict between France and Austria.

The federal government lacked the capability and courage, and, more importantly, the vested interests, to do so.

If it was the British, it would be more plausible. John Bull already made multiple attempts to provoke conflict between the two nations which had been discovered by the two. As a habitual offender, he was naturally a prime suspect.

This excuse provided a plausible explanation both domestically and internationally. Denials from the British government would be futile as France and Austria would readily believe it.

The main reason the French-Austrian relationship had not progressed further was because of British interference; otherwise, they might have formed an alliance years ago.

The “joint partition of Europe” plan originally proposed by Franz was actually the source of Napoleon III’s current ambitions. After annexing the Kingdom of Sardinia, his ambition spun out of control.

The Franco-Austrian secret treaty included plans to drive the British out of the Mediterranean, which had also already begun implementation.

Whether in Greece, the Ottoman Empire, Egypt, or North Africa, British expansion in these areas had not been smooth in recent years.

With both parties conspiring against the British, the British government naturally became displeased. However, these were all covert maneuvers; outwardly, everyone feigned friendliness.

John Bull, feeling aggrieved, naturally adopted retaliatory measures, with provoking conflict between the two nations being one of them. Many of the British tactics were subtle, and even if they were exposed, they still affected Franco-Austrian relations.

Otherwise, how could France and Austria have progressed to this point from happily carving up the European continent together?

Soon, the evidence prepared by the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies was transmitted to Paris and Vienna, albeit with the main focus shifting to the British.

This can hardly be considered a wrongful accusation. The London newspapers have already exposed the truth behind the civil war in the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, using a great deal of ink to describe how France and Austria were secretly pulling the strings behind the scenes.

Due to a lack of sufficient audiovisual evidence, these allegations naturally faced denials from the governments of France and Austria.

However, driven by the British, the news quickly began to spread across the European continent, providing ample entertainment for the bystanders.

Many wished to see the two countries go to war, such as the warring Prussia and Russia, as they wanted someone to share in their misfortune.

Only if France and Austria went to war and were embroiled in hostilities would everyone’s strength be brought back to the same level. Whether they were willing to admit it or not, Prussia and Russia had fallen behind.

Alexander II holds the most authority to speak on this matter, having witnessed the decline of the Russian Empire firsthand. Now, they were only the nominal European hegemon, with actual power lagging behind that of France and Austria.

This was not just a matter of money, but a comprehensive disadvantage in national strength. An agricultural nation could never defeat an industrial nation — the gap of the times could not be made up for by numbers alone.

Vienna

Foreign Minister Wessenberg proposed, “Your Majesty, this conflict between France and Austria must be stopped now. Continuing will only let us play into the hands of the British. It’s not yet time for an all-out war between France and Austria. We need time to prepare.”

War is no trifling matter, especially between two great powers. The First World War in the original timeline is an example; both sides made ample preparations before engaging in conflict.

At present, Austria was completely unprepared. What do they have to fight an all-out war with?

Finance Minister Karl objected, “This situation was provoked by the French. Are we just going to let it slide? What about our dignity?”

This was also part of the problem. This conflict had to have someone take responsibility, and it absolutely could not be Austria. The Austrian government had to regain face.

Prime Minister Felix said fiercely, “Whoever ignited this dispute must take responsibility for this incident. Since Francis II has invited the wolf into the house, he is no longer qualified to continue as King of the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies.

Francis II has many brothers. We can completely replace him with a pro-Austrian king. His brother, the Count of Trani, is not a bad choice.”

In Austria’s view, Francis II’s actions were already tantamount to betrayal. A traitor must naturally pay the price. However, as he is a king, Vienna cannot demand his life, but stripping him of the throne is still possible.

This was Francis II’s own doing. Not only did he make a mess of things domestically, losing favor, but he also foolishly sought aid from Napoleon III, causing many within the House of Bourbon to become extremely dissatisfied with him.

In this context, the Austrian government demanded Francis II’s abdication, as he had few supporters left.

As for the French? It’s better for them to let it go. Napoleon III is not in the business of charity. The cost of keeping Francis II on the throne is too high, with little benefit in return.

The Count of Trani’s full name is Louis Maria, Francis II’s half-brother who was born on August 1, 1838. He was not even 18 years old at the time.

But that’s not the point. The crucial aspect is that Louis Maria is the son of Archduchess Maria Theresia Isabella of Austria, making him the grandson of Archduke Karl, the Austrian military hero. He naturally inherited the bloodline of the Habsburgs.

Francis II was able to inherit the throne not because he had particularly strong supporters, but entirely because of European inheritance laws.

As members of the aristocracy, whether of the House of Bourbon or Habsburg, they were upholders of the rules, strictly adhering to them.

Thus, Francis II was able to grow up safely and inherit the throne peacefully, without any so-called bloody drama along the way.

Everything proceeded according to the standard treatment for a crown prince. Stories of a stepmother’s abuse simply did not exist. Archduchess Isabella was a cultured person and would not engage in such distasteful behavior.

Because he lost his mother at a young age, everyone felt pity for Francis II, who was showered with love by his entire family as he grew up. Compared to his brothers who faced strict upbringings from childhood, he was raised in a more relaxed environment.

Never having experienced setbacks from childhood is not necessarily a good thing for a king, which is one reason behind Francis II’s foolish decisions.

The world does not revolve around one person, and now Francis II faces a conundrum. The Franco-Austrian conflict requires a resolution, and Austria’s reputation needs to be upheld.

As the main culprit, Francis II cannot escape blame, and abdication is the only choice.

This doesn’t concern Franz, and he has no relationship with the Count of Trani. Archduke Karl also has sons of his own, so there’s no reason for the inheritance to fall to his grandson. It’s just a matter of convenience for the Austrian government to go along with it.

Franz scoffed and said, “Then let Francesco II abdicate, but we cannot let the French off the hook like this. Since they dared to meddle, they must pay the price.

Our strategy targeting the French can now begin to be implemented. Napoleon III has had too much leisure — he must be made busy.”