Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 400: When False Is Taken for True, True Becomes False; If Non-Being Turn Into Being, Being Becomes Non-Being

After careful consideration, the British government decided to blockade the Baltic Sea. In fact, once the Prussian government agreed to take on orders the Russians placed in Britain, opposition within Parliament to the blockade of the Baltic Sea disappeared.

Being anti-Russian has always been British national policy. Naturally, no one would oppose taking the Russians down a peg or two as long as it didn’t harm everyone’s interests.

On January 11, 1866, under the pretext of suppressing piracy, the Royal Navy blockaded the entrance to the Baltic Sea.

There was no actual blockade of the Baltic Sea. Considering the safety of passing ships, the Royal Navy merely suggested that everyone temporarily suspend entering or leaving the Baltic Sea.

The advice was given, and whether or not to follow it was entirely voluntary. If one were to be robbed by pirates, there should be no regrets.

The threat of “pirates” was terrifying. After two Russian merchant ships encountered mishaps, everyone wisely chose to suspend this maritime trade route.

For a time, the British Foreign Office was inundated with protest letters from various countries. Foreign Secretary Sir Raistlin ordered that they be handled with coldness, and then there was no further action.

The war between Prussia and Russia continued, which was in line with the interests of France and Austria. Without major powers stepping in, all small countries could do was protest.

In Franz’s view, the strategy of spreading your forces thinly was the most draining on national strength. With the Russian Empire unable to bring its military superiority into play to directly crush Prussia, it had already failed strategically.

Politicians view problems differently from ordinary people. Winning a war does not necessarily mean victory, and losing a war does not necessarily mean failure.

History is replete with classic cases where, from the ordinary person’s perspective, it seems like a protagonist has gone astray or the horse tripped. However, upon careful analysis of the gains and losses behind the scenes, it results in the ultimate victory for the apparent loser.

It’s just that in modern times, with the awakening of the masses, the demands on the ruling class have gradually increased, and the cost of this approach has risen, eventually being abandoned.

The most direct benefit of the blockade by the British brought about an increase in the trade volume between Russia and Austria. Now, the Russian government has no choice but to conduct trade with just this one seller.

Franz doesn’t care how much prices have risen. Anyway, now the Russian government was directly placing orders with the capitalists, and whatever price they negotiated was the price they would pay.

Now that the Russian government has money, the bureaucrats will find ways to spend it. With the rise in commodity prices, the profits of the capitalists increase, and the kickbacks for the bureaucrats also increase, even contributing to the growth of tax revenue for the Austrian government.

It was a win-win-win situation — good for you, good for me, good for everyone.

“Your Majesty, this is the latest European strategy from the French,” said the head of intelligence, Tyron, as he handed over a document.

Having not achieved victory in the Near East War, Napoleon III remained open-minded. When formulating strategies, he always sought collective wisdom.

The benefit of collective wisdom is that it reduces the rate of errors but also increases the likelihood of exposure. Once more people know about something, it ceases to be a secret.

Although the French’s strategic plan wasn’t widely known, there were dozens of participants in its formulation, so leaks weren’t surprising.

Of course, this could also be a smokescreen deliberately put out by the French. Almost every country has a dozen truthful and deceptive strategies.

Until events unfold, no one knows which strategy is genuine. Thus, it’s essential to gather as much information as possible and then make judgments.

Even Napoleon III himself couldn’t guarantee which plan would truly represent their future strategy.

Usually, there are several alternative plans, and the most suitable strategy for the current situation is generally chosen based on changes in the international situation.

This selection can change at any time. Unless it’s a long-term national policy with minimal potential for change, any other strategy is merely one of the alternatives.

After carefully examining it, Franz had to admit that the French had ambitious plans.

They not only aimed to use the Russo-Prussian War to pull the Russians down from their position as world hegemon but also plotted to seize the Rhineland from the Prussians.

This was just the first step in their strategy. There were plans to annex Belgium, the western part of the Rhine River in the German Federal Empire, and even preparations to annex regions of Italy.

In his heart, Franz had already crossed out this ambitious strategic plan. Implementing such a strategy would be delusional, even in the Napoleonic era it would have been a stretch.

Apart from using the Russo-Prussian War to pull the Russians down from their position as the dominant power on the continent, none of the remaining strategies had any chance of being realized.

The idea of a “Russo-Franco-Austrian” three-way partitioning of Prussia was nonsensical from the beginning.

The Russian government invested so much in this war that the cost could not even be recovered by reclaiming Prussian Poland alone. If the French got the largest slice of the pie, could Alexander II’s heart find peace?

Even if he were magnanimous, aiding the enemy is not something he can do! Dividing the spoils has never been a simple task, especially when sharing them with the enemy.

If the French were to gain control of the Rhineland region, their industrial development potential would increase by at least twofold, while the Russian Empire, gaining Prussian Poland, would only marginally improve its strength, if at all.

As for Austria, the benefits from partitioning Prussia would directly be negative. Given the choice, Franz would prefer to fight a war with France rather than accept such a losing deal in the partitioning.

In terms of benefits: a mere hundred thousand square kilometers of land would directly place Austria in a strategic deadlock. The value brought by this territory wouldn’t even offset the increased defense expenditures.

Politically: Once involved in partitioning Prussia, it implies that Franz would relinquish his political status as co-monarch of Germany, and the legitimacy of the new Holy Roman Empire’s throne would face serious challenges.

This is different from the original timeline’s Second Reich, where they never held the title of co-monarch. That’s why William I failed to become Emperor of Germany and settled for being dubbed German Emperor instead.

Legally, the Second Reich is a republic, while the emperor is merely a hereditary president. Even though William I obtained the title of Emperor through the Imperial Proclamation, his actual position remained that of federal president.

This was also the primary reason for William II losing the throne after World War I. Even the Habsburg dynasty struggled for a while. If it weren’t for the last emperor, Charles, making consecutive blunders, they could have preserved several crowns.

Legality differs from other factors; once lost, it can’t be regained. Franz’s co-monarch status stems from the unification of Germany. Would the people still accept him as emperor if he were to participate in the partitioning of German territory with other countries?

Even for his own interests, Franz couldn’t allow such a situation to occur.

“Transfer the intelligence to the Cabinet and have them arrange for people to analyze the French’s previous strategies, to see what they’re hiding,” Franz ordered.

These messy strategies actually hold value. No one can guarantee that these strategies won’t become a reality.

At least compared to Bismarck’s German unification plan in the original timeline, the French strategy had a much higher chance of success, whereas Bismarck’s ambitious plan in the original timeline even succeeded.

There’s also the Italian strategy concocted by Cavour and the Japanese strategy devised by Ito Hirobumi, both of which had lower chances of success compared to the French plan.

With so many successful cases, Franz naturally couldn’t afford to be complacent. After all, the French are powerful. As long as Napoleon III doesn’t lose his mind and randomly commands on the frontlines, they are one of the most formidable empires in the world.

In theory, with so many plans, except for Austria’s inability to compromise on the Rhineland, exchanges of interests are possible in other regions.

The mineral resources in the Rhineland are crucial for the French, but they are not irreplaceable. Belgium is one of the alternatives.

As long as coal supplies are ensured for several decades, with the development of maritime transportation, shipping costs will continue to decrease. Transporting mineral resources from overseas colonies back to the homeland will also be within the industry’s acceptable range of costs.

The French might even seize an opportunity to strike first, catching Austria off guard and seizing the Rhineland from the battlefield.

Franz never doubted this possibility. The Austrian General Staff has hundreds of plans for attacking France, and they continue to increase. It wouldn’t be surprising if the French harbored the same intentions.